Looking for Lifetime Loyalty

Barack Obama looks on as host Gideon Yago speaks to a studio audience Saturday, Feb. 2, 2008 at MTV Studios in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

It may only be the end of March, but political operatives are already talking about November. After a contentious year in office, the midterm elections on Nov. 2, 2010 won't just be a referendum on President Obama, but on the young voters who elected him. Over 20 percent of the electorate and growing, the Millennial generation is the most progressive generation, and potentially, the most powerful. They are, wrote liberal columnist E.J. Dionne Jr., “the linchpin of a new progressive era in American politics.” With record turnout, they voted for Barack Obama over John McCain by 66 to 32 percent in 2008. The question is if the linchpin will hold.

In the 15 months since the 2008 election, Democrats seem to have lost some ground in engaging young Americans. A recent Pew report stresses "Millennials [18-29 year olds] remain the most likely of any generation to self-identify as liberals," but that they cannot be taken for granted. In 2009 and 2010, Democrats suffered losses in Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, and young voters largely stayed home. When they did come out, like in New York's 23rd Congressional District special election, the Democrat won. The reason this fall's election is so important for both Democrats and Republicans is because they're both vying for lifetime party affiliation: If a person votes for the same party in his or her first three elections, that citizen often keeps that loyalty for life. Millions of young, first-time voters turned out for Obama, but the question is is, who will they support now?

The Democratic National Committee has worked to institutionalize outreach efforts to young people in recent years. DNC Chairman Tim Kaine, former governor of Virginia, named four young Democrats among its at-large members. Jason Rae, co-chair of the Democratic Youth Council, believes such a gesture “shows the value that the party puts on young people.” The council began in 2005 and works within the DNC to further youth interests. It is made up of 18 DNC members under the age of 36.

According to the Pew survey, a significant factor in Millennial generation's liberal leanings is its diversity. Only 61 percent of Millennials are white, compared to 70 percent of adults over 30, making outreach to Hispanics, who make up 19 percent of the generation, and African Americans who make up 14 percent, crucial. African Americans have long supported Democrats overwhelmingly. Hispanics seem to have swung decisively in the Democrats' direction in 2008. The College Democrats of America (CDA) has eight Caucuses to reach out to and organize the diversity of the generation, which include Hispanic, Black, LGBTQ, and Women’s caucuses, among others.

CDA also benefits from a close relationship with both the DNC and Organizing for America (OFA), the former organizing wing of the Obama Campaign. “There was an increase in involvement in 2008,” says Katie Naranjo, CDA’s president. “It was a magical year.” But she stresses that those numbers were growing before 2008 and have only continued to do so. Thanks largely to the grassroots infrastructure OFA built during the campaign, CDA has been able to open statewide chapters in conservative states like Utah and South Dakota that had been too difficult to organize in the past.

But earning support from young people from either party will take work. “If [young people] don’t see issues they care about addressed,” warns Erica L. Williams, Deputy Director of Progress 2050 at the Center for American Progress and senior adviser to Campus Progress, “they will stay home.”

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Ver.) recently echoed this concern: "What is very sad is we had hopes that [the 2008] election was transformational in the sense of bringing people into the political process who have never been in it before," Sanders said. By not following through on the issues, “we have lost them.”

The health care reform bill, signed by President Obama recently, might earn support for Democrats among young people, who are more likely to be uninsured than any other age demographic. About 37 percent of 18-29 year olds say they're not covered by insurance. The reform bill would allow individuals under the age of 26 to get coverage on their parents plan. Additionally, another deliverable Democrats might boast about this fall is the passage of the Student Aid and Fiscal Responsibility Act (SAFRA), which ends a program of loan subsidies to banks and diverts much of the savings to Pell grants. These pieces of legislation help fulfill the promises Obama made to young Americans during his 2008 campaign.

But while Democrats might be banking on passing polarizing policy, young Republicans are excited about a recent Harvard poll showing that 41 percent of young Republicans will definitely vote in 2010, while only 35 percent of young Democrats said the same. Republicans pledged that 2010 will be their year.

Each month, Zach Howell, national chairman of the College Republican National Committee (CRNC), checks in with local chapters to learn that their numbers are growing; in February, a record-setting 6,000 young people attended the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). They are winning the “enthusiasm gap,” he says. And Howell might be right. Midterm elections routinely suffer from low turnout for all age groups. Polls, at least prior to passage of the health care bill, have shown the Democrats' malaise of the past year may drive turnout lower. The Democratic advantage among Millennials in off-year and special elections last year and this year dropped from 29 to just 14 points.

College Republicans are courting students with a “universal message,” while the College Democrats talk about the specific issues that affect young people—jobs, the environment, "don't ask, don't tell." Of course, each of these approaches carry risks. Specific policy proposals are harder to win on than themes because they require follow-through. Themes are risky because the tangible benefits are scant.

Howell’s reticence to be specific marks a very different approach. Republicans have libertarians and social conservatives, Howell says, but the College Republicans are reaching out to a large spectrum of students by emphasizing a “responsible, long term policy that transcends issues like gay marriage and abortion.” Basically, conservatives are working in themes, though themes can be risky because the tangible benefits often seem scant.

An independent political committee or 527 group, College Republicans is “happy to take advice [from the RNC],” but Howell maintains the group’s independence. This gives College Republicans room to tailor their message to the more socially liberal Millennials. Howell’s focus on attracting conservatives of all stripes makes sense in this context; “we don’t require a party line,” he says. The CRNC's website doesn't list policy issues or the text of the Republican Party platform. But their ability to reach out to young people in the coming months may depend on their willingness to get specific about the issues. As of now, they are betting that ideals alone will captivate a generation till November and beyond.

What makes the 2010 election critical is that it is the first national election after the dramatic youth vote surge in 2008. Getting Millennials to participate in this election is crucial for picking November’s winners and losers, but also for determining ideological preferences of this generation in the long term. The three-vote rule makes 2010 “a pivotal moment for our democracy and our generation,” Williams says. Both parties have a lot at stake in winning the loyalty of a generation. They are taking this election seriously. It’s not just a referendum on Obama or health care, but on Millennials’ political participation for decades.

Editor's Note: this story has been edited from the original for clarity.

Pema Levy is a staff writer for Campus Progress.

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