When it comes to ascertaining who’s on top in the power-struggle between the Republicans and the Democrats in Washington, or to put it more broadly, conservatives and liberals in government, the U.S. has a relatively transparent system.  From seeing whether or XYZ legislation has passed and who is (and isn’t) being hauled into questioning by the Senate Judiciary Committee, the public and the media can get a realistic grasp of which party is having a better time pushing its agenda. 

Things are not so clear in the Iranian system of government.  Between secretive mullahs and entire government bodies with no legal accountability making silent decisions that impact the entire nation, it’s very difficult to know how easy or difficult a path the hardliners and moderates within the government tread.  However, on July 30th, a window in the hidden mechanics of the Islamic Republic opened.

Ayatollah Ali Meshkini, the conservative chairman of the Assembly of Experts in the Iranian government, passed away.  The Assembly of Experts, a non-electoral body that is checked by no other body, is extremely significant in that it carries the responsibility of choosing and overseeing Iran’s Supreme Leader, the highest and most powerful position in the nation. 

Whoever takes Meshkini’s place in the Assembly will make clear the relative positions of the hardliners and the moderates within the assembly and give the U.S. (if we’re paying attention) a better of idea of just what we’re dealing with in Tehran. The appointment of a moderate to the position, such as former president and First Deputy Chairman of the Assembly Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, would make clear that the trend demonstrated in earlier local elections this year of growing moderate power is taking place at higher levels as well.  This could be very encouraging for the re-opening of diplomatic relations with Iran.

On the other hand, if the leading hardline contender, Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, is chosen, it will mean that the people’s will has had no effect and the conservative movement is still thriving. 

A second implication of Meshkini’s death is the future appointment of the next Supreme Leader of Iran. The current Supreme Leader, hardliner Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, has been in power since 1989 after two terms as President.  Parallel to the situation in Castro’s Cuba, despite official assurance by the government, there is much media speculation concerning Khamenei’s health.  Whatever direction the Assembly of Experts takes in choosing its new Chairman will surely determine the choice in who takes the help after Khamenei’s death.