Tossup in MD Sen., not so much in MD Gov.
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| Also listed in: Campus Progress Blog |
The latest polling (likely voters) to come out of the Maryland Senate race has the Democrat and Republican, Rep. Ben Cardin and Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, respectively, in a dead heat at 48%-47%, with Green candidate Kevin Zeese polling at 4% and 2% undecided.
The picture is very different in the Maryland Gubernatorial race, where Democratic Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley has a much greater lead (51%-44%) over incumbent Republican Governor Bob Ehrlich, with 2% for Green candidate Ed Boyd and 1% for Populist candidate Chris Driscoll, with 2% undecided.
The survey is rather comprehensive and allows a deeper analysis of what's going on than usual. The biggest difference between the two races is how black voters are responding to the candidates. O'Malley has the support of a full 78% of black voters, which historically for Maryland is the typical range of support for Democrats in the black community. However when one looks at the Senatorial campaign, Steele, who is the only black candidate for Senate, pulls in more than twice the black support -- 33% -- as his same-party Gubernatorial candidate and one-time running mate Bob Ehrlich. That factor is a large part of what is making this race competitive.
Maryland is a crucial battleground state in the contest of Senate control. The traditionally solidly blue state has been flirting red the past few election cycles, and with this open Senate seat (the current Senator Paul Sarbanes, a Democrat, is retiring), things are much tighter than either of Maryland's neighbors to the north or south. Pennsylvania shows a consistent lead for Democrat Bob Casey, and Virginia shows the incumbent Republican George Allen doing very well.
An obvious question to ask is why Green Party candidate Ed Boyd is not doing better in the Governor's race, especially because: 1) his Senate counterpart is polling twice as high as he, and 2) Boyd is the only black candidate for Governor. It is likely the result of media exposure more than anything else: Zeese debated with Cardin and Steele, giving him a major media boost, while both Boyd and Driscoll are barred from the Gubernatorial debates.
In the Senate race, Democrats fear, and Republicans hope for, what almost happened in Pennsylvania: the presence of a third party candidate that could change the outcome of the race. There are more debates scheduled for both Senate and Governor, and even with little more than a fortnight to go, political winds could change, due to events happening both in-state and on the national level. The key variables for the next few weeks will be: 1) viewership of and candidates' performances in televised debates, and 2) GOTV efforts.
A third variable will be the isues of absentee ballots. Earlier this year Maryland's voting machines (largely Diebold) were the subject of national attention due to both mechanical and human mistakes. Both Ehrlich and O'Malley have urged Marylanders to vote via absentee ballot to "make sure" their vote is counted. Absentee ballots in general skew conservative, and if glitches arise in election day proceedings, Ehrlich could very well shrink the difference between him and O'Malley.
Voters in Maryland, along with Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee (yes, Tennessee) will likely play kingmakers as ultimate deciders of this year's closest Senate races.
This blog does not, nor does Campus Progress, support or endorse any candidate or political party.
The picture is very different in the Maryland Gubernatorial race, where Democratic Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley has a much greater lead (51%-44%) over incumbent Republican Governor Bob Ehrlich, with 2% for Green candidate Ed Boyd and 1% for Populist candidate Chris Driscoll, with 2% undecided.
The survey is rather comprehensive and allows a deeper analysis of what's going on than usual. The biggest difference between the two races is how black voters are responding to the candidates. O'Malley has the support of a full 78% of black voters, which historically for Maryland is the typical range of support for Democrats in the black community. However when one looks at the Senatorial campaign, Steele, who is the only black candidate for Senate, pulls in more than twice the black support -- 33% -- as his same-party Gubernatorial candidate and one-time running mate Bob Ehrlich. That factor is a large part of what is making this race competitive.
Maryland is a crucial battleground state in the contest of Senate control. The traditionally solidly blue state has been flirting red the past few election cycles, and with this open Senate seat (the current Senator Paul Sarbanes, a Democrat, is retiring), things are much tighter than either of Maryland's neighbors to the north or south. Pennsylvania shows a consistent lead for Democrat Bob Casey, and Virginia shows the incumbent Republican George Allen doing very well.
An obvious question to ask is why Green Party candidate Ed Boyd is not doing better in the Governor's race, especially because: 1) his Senate counterpart is polling twice as high as he, and 2) Boyd is the only black candidate for Governor. It is likely the result of media exposure more than anything else: Zeese debated with Cardin and Steele, giving him a major media boost, while both Boyd and Driscoll are barred from the Gubernatorial debates.
In the Senate race, Democrats fear, and Republicans hope for, what almost happened in Pennsylvania: the presence of a third party candidate that could change the outcome of the race. There are more debates scheduled for both Senate and Governor, and even with little more than a fortnight to go, political winds could change, due to events happening both in-state and on the national level. The key variables for the next few weeks will be: 1) viewership of and candidates' performances in televised debates, and 2) GOTV efforts.
A third variable will be the isues of absentee ballots. Earlier this year Maryland's voting machines (largely Diebold) were the subject of national attention due to both mechanical and human mistakes. Both Ehrlich and O'Malley have urged Marylanders to vote via absentee ballot to "make sure" their vote is counted. Absentee ballots in general skew conservative, and if glitches arise in election day proceedings, Ehrlich could very well shrink the difference between him and O'Malley.
Voters in Maryland, along with Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee (yes, Tennessee) will likely play kingmakers as ultimate deciders of this year's closest Senate races.
This blog does not, nor does Campus Progress, support or endorse any candidate or political party.
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I see this race as the true indicator of which way the south is going to swing in '08. If Ford can pull off a victory, it would be not only a coup for the Democratic party (who, as stated, need him to win to take the majority in the Senate) but also a sign that perhaps the red-state dominated south is finally coming back around to the left.
I would definitely keep an eye on this race--it should be interesting and a type of benchmark for '08 projections.