Is North Korea Bluffing?
| By ToddHill - Oct 17th, 2006 at 4:10 pm EDT |
| Also listed in: Campus Progress Blog |
The world is on edge wondering if North Korea will truly have the audacity to test yet another nuclear weapon in order to solidify its presumed status on the world stage as a nuclear power. I have to admit that I really just don't know if they will, and the unknown is rather unnerving, but based on recent events and certain realities it is a safe bet that they will.
One of the reasons I believe they will test another weapon is because world powers cutely reminded everyone that, "yes they tested a nuclear weapon, but it was a really small one." Teasing ones' ego often yields destabilizing results, especially from radical dictators with nothing to lose.
The larger question is whether the newly enacted UN Resolution, a watered down and pathetic agreement meant to appease Russia and China more then it was meant to smack down North Korea, will be emphatically enforced by all nations whose interests rest on a peaceful solution to this ever destabilizing situation. I suppose we'll see, but it is rather ironic that this administration spurned the U.N. in 2002 over Iraq but was emphatic in utilizing them against North Korea, and even willing to sell their soul to achieve it. China has already indicated, for the most part, they'll follow parts of the agreement, but for how long? I still don't trust the Chinese government to keep their word, and there is little to no evidence justifying why we should trust them.
The United States is championing this resolution as a large step towards derailing the DPRK's nuclear ambitions but that is highly unlikely. Our response to North Koreas actions should remind everyone just how pathetic a situation this administration has now boxed our country into. What happened to the muscle and teeth the political supporters on the Right love to claim this administration brings to American foreign policy? North Korea chuckles at our veiled "diplomacy" because it shows we can't stop them, which is why they will likely test another nuclear weapon. It's a diplomatic game of "truth or dare" and Kim Jong Il continues to choose "dare." North Korea knows they can trust China to ultimately defend them and we all know the Chinese government uses their choke chain on Kim Jong Il sparingly. I ultimately think the UN resolution will fail from lack of overall substance, international cooperation, and international enforcement.
Former Secretary of State James Baker suggested, as I have advocated many times as well, that bilateral talks are the only way to solve this problem and avoid further nuclear escalations. It is not appeasement to talk to your enemies and dialogue through six other nations is incredibly counterproductive and ineffective. North Korea wants something very simple; they want a written non-aggression treaty signed by U.S. government officials that guarantees their security and sovereignty. A verbal agreement by this administration, which according to Secretary of State Rice has been provided numerous times to the North, isn't worth the spit it takes to form the words in a verbal fashion.
So the only conclusion left to come to is that North Korea will test their second nuclear weapon, and will continue to test them till they get what they want on their own terms. And there is no one to blame for this but the egos that occupy Washington DC.
One of the reasons I believe they will test another weapon is because world powers cutely reminded everyone that, "yes they tested a nuclear weapon, but it was a really small one." Teasing ones' ego often yields destabilizing results, especially from radical dictators with nothing to lose.
The larger question is whether the newly enacted UN Resolution, a watered down and pathetic agreement meant to appease Russia and China more then it was meant to smack down North Korea, will be emphatically enforced by all nations whose interests rest on a peaceful solution to this ever destabilizing situation. I suppose we'll see, but it is rather ironic that this administration spurned the U.N. in 2002 over Iraq but was emphatic in utilizing them against North Korea, and even willing to sell their soul to achieve it. China has already indicated, for the most part, they'll follow parts of the agreement, but for how long? I still don't trust the Chinese government to keep their word, and there is little to no evidence justifying why we should trust them.
The United States is championing this resolution as a large step towards derailing the DPRK's nuclear ambitions but that is highly unlikely. Our response to North Koreas actions should remind everyone just how pathetic a situation this administration has now boxed our country into. What happened to the muscle and teeth the political supporters on the Right love to claim this administration brings to American foreign policy? North Korea chuckles at our veiled "diplomacy" because it shows we can't stop them, which is why they will likely test another nuclear weapon. It's a diplomatic game of "truth or dare" and Kim Jong Il continues to choose "dare." North Korea knows they can trust China to ultimately defend them and we all know the Chinese government uses their choke chain on Kim Jong Il sparingly. I ultimately think the UN resolution will fail from lack of overall substance, international cooperation, and international enforcement.
Former Secretary of State James Baker suggested, as I have advocated many times as well, that bilateral talks are the only way to solve this problem and avoid further nuclear escalations. It is not appeasement to talk to your enemies and dialogue through six other nations is incredibly counterproductive and ineffective. North Korea wants something very simple; they want a written non-aggression treaty signed by U.S. government officials that guarantees their security and sovereignty. A verbal agreement by this administration, which according to Secretary of State Rice has been provided numerous times to the North, isn't worth the spit it takes to form the words in a verbal fashion.
So the only conclusion left to come to is that North Korea will test their second nuclear weapon, and will continue to test them till they get what they want on their own terms. And there is no one to blame for this but the egos that occupy Washington DC.
!
Comments are closed for this post.
I disagree with you completely because then why send Collin Powell before the UN with this "slam dunk" case for going to war with Iraq? A better case can be made for war with North Korea.
North Korea poses the same threat now (and then) that we were led to believe Iraq posed during the ramp up to war in 2002-2003.
The role of the UN should be equal. The difference is that the Bush administration didn't give a shit if they had their support in 2003, now they have no choice but to lean on the UN for support against North Korea because we have no diplomatic leverage, and certainly very limited military options.
TMH
Now, the UN is a potential ally. Whereas there wasn't IAEA backing for the idea that Saddam had a nuclear program, there is absolutely NO dissent at IAEA over the notion that North Korea is developing nukes.
The point is, regardless of how we think the UN SHOULD be used, the way it WAS used in the runup to Iraq is much different than the way it will be used for North Korea. When the UN serves the Administration's ends, it's a grand organization of noble purpose that should be heeded. When it stands in contrast to the administration, it's a relic of the past that should be given little thought. Just like every single other organization having to deal with policy.
AMEN, my friend! My point exactly
TMH