| By Emily Rutherford - Nov 9th, 2009 at 12:10 pm EST |
| Also listed in: Campus Progress Updates |
Advocates on both sides of the issue lobbied senators over the weekend, but it was still unclear on Sunday whether the measure could attract the 32 votes needed in the State Senate for approval. (The Assembly has already passed the bill.)
[...]
In New York, Democrats hold a shaky 32-to-30 majority in the Senate, and some senators oppose allowing the legislation to come to the floor for a vote.
Those who favor the bill say they realize they are risking another significant defeat but are determined to get legislators on record on the issue. They also say that now may be the best time to push lawmakers to take up the bill, given that next year all 212 members of the Legislature will face re-election.
Estimates vary, but supporters of the bill believe they can count on about 25 votes for the legislation at this time.
Though I admire Gov. Paterson's dedication to making this a top legislative priority, his timing is really awful. The recent defeat for marriage equality in Maine will make legislators much more confident in voting against marriage in NY, and defeat on the bill now will make it difficult to reintroduce in a later legislative session.
But there's another important issue that makes this vote even more complicated, and that's the issue of New Jersey. Now that Chris Christie will be replacing Gov. Corzine in January, NJ Democrats have ramped up efforts to pass a marriage equality bill before Christie comes into office—he's said he would veto such a bill, while Corzine has said he would sign it. Therefore, there will be a vote on marriage equality in NJ sometime after NY's vote and sometime before January, and it could be powerfully affected by how the NY vote turns out on Tuesday.
There are huge quantities of people crossing the NY-NJ state line every day, particularly those who live in NJ and work in NY. There's a lot of logistical interest in keeping laws about something like marriage consistent between the two states (imagine if your employer in NY is giving you spousal benefits that your health care provider in NJ won't accept); but more importantly, the NJ legislature will care what the NY legislature does. If the NY Senate votes down marriage equality tomorrow, it could be a much more powerful indicator of anti-marriage momentum in NJ than the vote in Maine or LGBT-related action on the federal level.
The good news for New Jersey, though, is twofold: firstly, its ballot-question laws are such that it's effectively impossible for New Jerseyans to vote on their fellow New Jerseyans' rights the way that people have in California and Maine. Secondly, Garden State Equality is taking this battle seriously, putting together an organized lobbying game and releasing new television commercials, which you can watch here.
All marriage equality-related eyes will be on NY and NJ in the next couple months. With the possible exception of the District of Columbia, they will unquestionably be the next states to come close to and possibly succeed in passing marriage equality legislation. And then what of my favorite neighborly hate group, the National Organization for Marriage? Despite various reports that they've moved to Philadelphia or DC, their website is still listing a Princeton, NJ address and phone number, and I think this post indicates why. NOM was the largest donor to Prop. 8 and to Question 1 in Maine, and I imagine they're well aware that the next big fight is in their own state (and mine!).
Stay tuned, folks. This is all going to have dramatic implications for the fate of marriage equality in this country.

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