|
|
| Also listed in: Campus Progress Blog |
Juan Cole (whose judgment on Iraq is at least superior to Jonah Goldberg's) offers a strong rationale and solid blueprint for leaving Iraq. Considering his track record so far, in addition to his strong academic credentials, it's definitely worth reading (and, so far as my undergraduate ass can tell, he's making a lot of sense):
The US repression of Sunnis has allowed Shiites and Kurds to avoid compromise. The Sunnis in Parliament have demanded that the excesses of de-Baathification be reversed (thousands of Sunnis have been fired from jobs just because they belonged to the Baath Party). They have been rebuffed. Sunnis rejected the formation of a Shiite super-province in the south. Shiites nevertheless pushed it through Parliament. The Kurdish leadership has also dismissed Sunni objections to their plans to annex the oil-rich province of Kirkuk, which has a significant Arab population.The key to preventing an intensified civil war is US withdrawal from the equation so as to force the parties to an accommodation. Therefore, the United States should announce its intention to withdraw its military forces from Iraq, which will bring Sunnis to the negotiating table and put pressure on Kurds and Shiites to seek a compromise with them. But a simple US departure would not be enough; the civil war must be negotiated to a settlement, on the model of the conflicts in Northern Ireland and Lebanon.
Talks require a negotiating partner. The first step in Iraq must therefore be holding provincial elections. In the first and only such elections, held in January 2005, the Sunni Arab parties declined to participate. Provincial governments in Sunni-majority provinces are thus uniformly unrepresentative, and sometimes in the hands of fundamentalist Shiites, as in Diyala. A newly elected provincial Sunni Arab political class could stand in for the guerrilla groups in talks, just as Sinn Fein, the political wing of the Irish Republican Army, did in Northern Ireland.
Groups like the DLC have complained that the Congressional majority has an obligation to provide not just a denunciation of Bush's escalation, but also offer a "Plan B." Provided the Democratic leadership in Congress can get over their constant fear of Republican taunts, and are willing to go to their constituents and explain what this plan outlines and why each step is critical towards ending the Iraq War, this sounds like a good seed for a comprehensive Congressional alternative to Bush's escalation and continuous mismanagement of the war.
