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| Also listed in: Campus Progress Blog |
It’s official—Fidel Castro is no longer the president of Cuba. He stepped down Tuesday, after posting a letter to the state-run newspaper Granma. He cited “critical health condition” as his reason for stepping down. For those watching Castro the past few years, this reason shouldn’t come as a surprise. After having intestinal problems and subsequent treatment in 2006, Castro handed over much of his power to his brother Raúl.
There will be elections for the next president in the next few days, though Castro has already named Raúl as his successor. Will democracy take over? Bush is quite hopeful for this, stating:
“The international community should work with the Cuban people to begin to build institutions that are necessary for democracy and eventually this transition ought to lead to free and fair elections. The United States will help the people of Cuba realize the blessings of liberty” (from a press conference in Rwanda, quote in CNN article).
I’m thinking that sounds a little familiar…
However, I think the prediction for the future of Cuba comes from Janisset Rivero, the executive director of Cuban Democratic Directorate, who was quoted in the same article:
“It doesn't mean any change to the system. It doesn't mean there will be freedom for the Cubans. One big dictator is replacing the other”.
~世界の革命
!
If Fidel's brother takes over, I do not think the administration will like that too well because they will continue down the un-democratic slope, not that we do much better. We will see how the election goes.
Looking at how Barack's currently polling vs McCain there, in contrast with how he's polling nationally, we may be on track for that day very soon.
If we want Cuba to begin opening up, the same way countries like Vietnam and China have, we need open travel, immigration, and liberalize trade restrictions. Just as with China and Vietnam, there will be a certain hard-line American constituency opposing that liberalization. McCain's stature in the Vietnamese-American community (primarily those of the generation that remembered Vietnam before the civil war) took a huge hit when he worked to achieve normalization of relations with Vietnam, for instance, and it never really bounced back. But there's nothing better we could do to benefit ordinary Cubans.
It's also worth mentioning that even though Castro is stepping down, health permitting he won't step down very far. If his health is stabilized, he may very well exert significant political influence as an "eminence grise" in the coming years.