With only six months before the first Caucus in Iowa, the race for the Democratic and Republican nomination is in full swing, but there could be one more name added to the list of potential candidates, a third party candidate.   Could a third party Independent candidate really sweep in and bring an end to the two-party domination of politics as we know it?

 Its been reported by people close to Bloomberg that he will make a decision to run later on probably by next spring if the two nominees of the party have approval ratings in the 40% range, and if there is a strong willingness to have a third party candidacy.  He is a self made man, who built the Bloomberg business empire. Bloomberg has a net worth of between $5 and $13 Billion, and could easily drop up to a $1 billion on a potential campaign.  

Bloomberg has cleaned up the city after the devastating attacks of 9/11, balanced the budget for the city, and kept the crime rate low.  He has fixed the education system where the high school graduation rate has improved by 18%.  He has also enacted legislation to reduce greenhouse gasses by requiring that all taxi cabs in the city be hybrid vehicles by 2012, and created a fee for trucks entering Manhattan.  He is a no-nonsense practical politician from outside of the Washington Beltway.  He isn’t bogged down by the Senatorial partisanship and party loyalty typical of Washington.  He is an executor with a record of getting results in the nation’s largest city.

That’s the optimistic view of a potential Bloomberg candidacy, however there is a dark side to a third party candidacy in 2008.  Despite the repeated calls for its repeal after the disaster in the 2000 Presidential election, the Electoral College threatens to turn a third party candidacy into a big spoiler.  Could Bloomberg become the next Ralph Nader?

The hypothetical circumstance we could find ourselves in is this:  Its February 5th,  The Primary’s are over and the votes are in, we have a clear winner in both parties.  The Democrats nominate a candidate, who may make many in the Democratic base happy, but the general electorate is not very enthusiastic.  The Republicans nominate a conservative who unites the Right-wing and some moderates, but doesn’t have broad appeal from the general electorate.  The negative numbers are very high for both nominees.   Enter Mike Bloomberg.   Bloomberg takes advantage of this dissatisfaction of the two parties, and throws his hat into the ring.  Fast forward nine months later.

Bloomberg has spent nearly a $1 Billion in advertising and building a grassroots movement.  He appeals to many Moderate Democrats and some Moderate Republicans, and polls show the race is too-close-to-call.  Polls also show that most people want a Democratic President, and someone who will end the Iraq War.   It’s Election Day, November 4th 2008.  The numbers come in, and there are several different outcomes which are very possible.

The first possibility is that Bloomberg pulls off a huge upset and wins the 270 Electoral College votes he needs to win.  Bloomberg becomes our next President.

The second possibility is that Bloomberg wins a substantial portion of the vote; however he isn’t able to pull off a win in any of the states, or in one or two states. Because he is more socially moderate the majority of his support comes from the Democrats and moderate Independents, his support comes at the expense of the Democratic Candidate.  The Republican candidate doesn’t win a huge majority, however Bloomberg takes just enough moderate votes to give the Electoral College to the Republican, despite the fact that most Americans want a Democratic President.  Bloomberg is a spoiler; he is the new Ralph Nader.

The third possibility is that Bloomberg does very well in the election in states with moderate Republicans and Independents; he wins California, Colorado, Minnesota, New York, New Jersey, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Oregon, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin.  He has a total of 170 Electoral College Votes.  Bloomberg comes close to winning in several other states as well.  The Republican candidate wins in the typical conservative states in the south and Midwest, but doesn’t take the Electoral College with only 198 Electoral College votes.  The Democratic Candidate wins the typical Blue States, as well as Ohio and Florida to win 164 Electoral Votes.  Together the Democratic Candidate and Bloomberg win 334 Electoral College votes.  Unfortunately because no candidate won the necessary 270 Electoral College votes, the election is then sent to the House of Representatives where each State is given just one vote for President.  It is likely that the House will be in Democratic control in 2008, and it is therefore likely that the House would choose the Democratic Candidate as the Next President.  Even though technically the Republican candidate won the most votes in the popular vote, and Bloomberg won more votes than the Democratic Candidate, it is conceivable that the House would choose the Democratic candidate. 

This is the worst case scenario, but if you think it’s not possible, think again, it has already happened once before.  In 1824 Andrew Jackson won the popular vote and 99 Electoral votes, John Quincy Adams won 89 Electoral votes, but Henry Clay (the Speaker of the House at the time) won 37 electoral votes, denying Jackson the needed Electoral College votes.  After Clay threw his support behind John Q. Adams, the House voted to Elect Adams as the next President.  It was known as the “corrupt bargain” at the time, and was the most contentious election until that time. 

These last two scenario demonstrate what could happen if a credible third party candidate like Bloomberg were to enter the race, but wasn’t able to pull off a win.  On the other hand would it be worth the risk if the result is the possibility of electing an Independent Unity President?

There are many unknowns and much can change between now and the General Election.  Hillary Clinton could solidify her front-runner status, or she could falter and open up an opportunity for Obama to pull into the lead and win the nomination.  John Edwards could win Iowa and transfer his momentum into big wins in the February 5th Primary's. Al Gore could decide to jump into the race in the Fall and win the nomination.  Rudy Giuliani could hold on to his lead and win the Republican nomination.  Fred Thompson could steal Giuliani’s thunder and could unite the Republicans and win the nomination.  McCain could become the comeback kid in New Hampshire, Nevada or South Carolina.  Mitt Romney could pull off an upset in Iowa and New Hampshire and win the nomination.  There is the interesting prospect that we could have three New Yorkers on the November ballot.  Clinton, Giuliani, and Bloomberg.  Bloomberg could decide to stay out of the race, serve the rest of his term as Mayor and focus on his philanthropic work, and all of this speculation would remain just that.  There is no way to see into the future, but this election season is heating up in a very interesting way.  There is the possibility that just maybe we could have for the first time since Abraham Lincoln an Independent Unity-Ticket President.  The possibilities are endless, and while its still early in the process, the days until the 2008 Presidential Election are quickly ticking by.